What if Refiner buyback windfall on fat cracks rewards downstream equities?
Wide crack spreads from tight product markets flood refiners with cash that funds aggressive buybacks, re-rating Valero, Marathon and Phillips 66 on shareholder returns.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Wide crack spreads from tight product markets flood refiners with cash that funds aggressive buybacks, re-rating Valero, Marathon and Phillips 66 on shareholder returns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gasoline ▲ · Oil demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.91–+6.48% · other way +2.99% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.52–+5.19% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.3–+3.92% · other way -2.03% (n=7) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.22% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.09–+0.98% · other way +2.31% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.51–+3.37% · other way +2.52% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.01–+0.18% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist +0.02–+0.16% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -13.28–+19.51% · other way +0.99% (n=5) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.39–+1.36% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 71% | 21 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.3% · 5d +6.3% | 67% | 9 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 62% | 26 | 0.24 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 26 | 0.21 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 17 | 0.20 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -7.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 26 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.8% | 60% | 20 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 19 | 0.14 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 19 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 42% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |