Gasoline
Every scenario in which gasoline is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
72 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
51%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dangote refinery makes Nigeria a net product exporter?
49%▼ 3–10 years
What if Nigeria refining hub reshapes West African fuel trade?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dangote refinery turns Nigeria into a net fuel exporter?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Refining-capacity overbuild in Asia structurally caps cracks?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Refining-capacity shortfall lifts gasoline cracks structurally?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if ExxonMobil downstream offsets upstream glut weakness?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if a summer-spec switch squeezes US gasoline supplies?
39%▲ 6–18 months
What if Cheap-fuel rebound revives discretionary driving demand?
38%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gasoline crack collapse as new capacity meets EV demand loss?
38%▼ 6–18 months
What if Crack-spread collapse forces run cuts and crude builds?
38%▼ 6–18 months
What if Refined-product builds confirm the demand-side glut?
37%▼ 6–18 months
What if Sub-$3 US gasoline reinforces the cheap-energy dividend?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Product-led crude pull as crack spreads outrun flat price?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Record refinery runs pull crude tight despite ample supply?
35%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gasoline demand peaks early as US miles-driven plateau?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Global refining shortfall as closures outpace new capacity?
31%▲ 0–6 months
What if Driving-season gasoline surge tightens the pool?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Refiner buyback windfall on fat cracks rewards downstream equities?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dangote refinery ramp floods Atlantic basin, collapses cracks?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cat-4 Gulf-of-Mexico hurricane shuts in 1.5 mb/d offshore?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Refining-margin boom lifts Valero, Marathon and Phillips 66?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Crack-spread collapse de-rates US refiners as capacity floods back?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Chinese refined-product export quota surge gluts Asian cracks?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dangote kills Europe's gasoline export outlet, cracks crater?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Crack collapse squeezes Valero and Marathon refining margins?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Refinery fire removes 0.4 mb/d of US Gulf-Coast capacity?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if California refinery closures lock in a West-coast gasoline premium?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Falling gas and fuel costs reinforce a disinflationary soft landing?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Crack-spread boom widens XOM and CVX downstream earnings?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global refining-capacity wave compresses cracks toward breakeven?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Abundant cheap fuels broaden the global disinflation impulse?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Crude-to-chemicals refineries glut petchem-linked product streams?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Wide cracks trigger refiner buyback surge across the sector?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global gas-and-refining glut anchors a multi-year energy-cost decline?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gasoline glut consumer tailwind: cheap pump prices boost spending?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if EV penetration strands marginal refining capacity and forces early closures?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if EV adoption erodes structural gasoline demand, narrows cracks?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Lean global refining keeps product cracks structurally wide?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pemex refinery struggles keep Mexico a structural gasoline importer?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gas glut and weak cracks trigger an energy-sector capex retreat?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Tight gas and fat cracks drive a banner year for XLE?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if ransomware forces another major fuel pipeline shutdown?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Driving-season gasoline crack spikes on tight US inventories?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Twin Gulf-Coast hurricanes knock out refining for a month?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if US Gulf-coast refinery fire knocks out 600 kb/d of capacity?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if California import-dependence spikes West-coast pump prices above $7?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if US gasoline export surge tightens domestic supply, lifts RBOB?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Refinery maintenance season overlap tightens Atlantic gasoline?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-gasoline spread inverts as freight booms, travel softens?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf shock spikes diesel and gasoline cracks?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf escalation triggers a refiner sour-crude scramble?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf Coast oil-platform evacuation: precautionary CL spike?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if Gulf hurricane misses energy hub: relief rally in CL/NG?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a supply-driven Brent spike pushes retail gasoline prices to record highs?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if hurricane outages on the US Gulf Coast spike diesel and gasoline cracks ahead of peak demand?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if refinery outages into peak US driving season spike gasoline prices to record highs?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a gasoline-price spike from refining tightness becomes a political flashpoint?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cat-5 landfall idles Gulf-coast LNG and refining for weeks?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cascading Gulf-coast refinery outages spike PADD 3 gasoline?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Colonial Pipeline disruption spikes US East-Coast gasoline?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Simultaneous refinery and LNG outages spike US gas and cracks?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a weaker pound and higher crude lift UK pump prices to record levels?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if years of refinery closures leave global diesel and jet supply chronically tight?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if repeated SPR releases deplete strategic petroleum reserves and raise tail oil-price risk?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if major refiners' governments curb diesel and gasoline exports and fragment fuel markets?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if a fire strikes Reliance's giant Jamnagar refinery?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if deep OPEC+ production cuts lift Brent toward $110 and re-accelerate European inflation?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if a major hurricane simultaneously shuts Gulf crude production and Gulf Coast refining?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a wave of national diesel and gasoline export bans fragments the global product market?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a cluster of refinery outages spikes gasoline and diesel prices?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea rerouting ties up the clean-product tanker fleet and tightens regional fuel supply?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a cyber or physical outage on a major US product pipeline causes regional fuel shortages?