What if Reserve-currency flight to the dollar empties EM FX buffers fast?
A geopolitical shock sends global reserve managers and corporates rushing into dollars, draining EM reserves as central banks intervene against a one-way depreciation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A geopolitical shock sends global reserve managers and corporates rushing into dollars, draining EM reserves as central banks intervene against a one-way depreciation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.3% hist +0.0–+7.58% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.6% hist -3.63–+2.7% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.6% hist -5.79–+0.76% · other way +5.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.35–-0.3% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.86–-0.34% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.23–-0.51% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.46–+1.13% · other way +0.41% (n=12) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.14–-0.42% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.12–-0.62% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.74–+8.5% · other way +21.23% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.6% hist -0.98–+0.79% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -9.14–+1.08% · other way +5.13% (n=12) |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.78–-0.37% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -1.5% | 72% | 27 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -6.0% | 73% | 22 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 68% | 27 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 27 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.7% | 69% | 33 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.6% · 5d +3.1% | 64% | 29 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 26 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.6% · 5d +2.1% | 62% | 19 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.6% | 64% | 32 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 26 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 26 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.5% | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |