What if the far-right National Rally takes power in Paris?
An RN government threatening EU fiscal defiance widens OAT-Bund and pressures French banks and CAC, but a +6.9% VIX / -2.8% Nasdaq is a US-centric overshoot for a French political shock. Rhymes with the June 2024 snap-election scare when OAT-Bund gapped to ~85bp and French banks sold off sharply, then largely round-tripped. Transmission: French sovereign-bank doom-loop and periphery sympathy; Bunds bid as haven. Forward angle: an actual governing far-right that must pass a budget tends to moderate (Meloni precedent), so the cleaner expression is OAT-Bund widening, not a global de-risking.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rassemblement National wins snap election, names eurosceptic PM, threatens EU fiscal-rule defiance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.9% hist +0.06–+9.25% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.02–-0.81% · other way +0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.34–-0.09% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.64–-0.33% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.36–-0.06% · other way +26.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.06–+0.76% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.93–+1.15% · other way +2.96% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.25–-0.14% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -7.44–+2.72% · other way +6.5% (n=11) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -10.85–+5.18% · other way +6.3% (n=11) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.07–-0.04% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.38–+1.3% · other way +4.16% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.03–+1.15% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR: its +19.2% history is regime-contaminated by the 2023-25 BTC bull — Iran-strike/tariff windows lifted bitcoin, not a French sovereign shock that drains liquidity from levered crypto proxies.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +15.3% · 5d +8.8% | 88% | 8 | 0.64 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 70% | 30 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -7.3% | 73% | 11 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 24 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 15 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.8% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.3% · 5d +4.9% | 58% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Requires snap election plus RN majority and eurosceptic PM within 6mo; conditional, uncertain. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.