What if the far-right National Rally takes power in Paris?
An RN government threatening EU fiscal defiance widens OAT-Bund and pressures French banks and CAC, but a +6.9% VIX / -2.8% Nasdaq is a US-centric overshoot for a French political shock. Rhymes with the June 2024 snap-election scare when OAT-Bund gapped to ~85bp and French banks sold off sharply, then largely round-tripped. Transmission: French sovereign-bank doom-loop and periphery sympathy; Bunds bid as haven. Forward angle: an actual governing far-right that must pass a budget tends to moderate (Meloni precedent), so the cleaner expression is OAT-Bund widening, not a global de-risking.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rassemblement National wins snap election, names eurosceptic PM, threatens EU fiscal-rule defiance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.