What if AI underwriting guts insurance jobs?
AI claims/underwriting automation compresses P&C expense ratios and bids the AI-silicon stack, but adjuster displacement is gradual and regulation-bound. Closest rhyme is Lemonade's AI-underwriting model (2021) — margin promise that re-rated insurtech without sector-wide job loss. Trade: long P&C combined-ratio improvers; the Nvidia/Micron legs overstate one vertical's incremental compute demand.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Insurers automate claims and underwriting with AI agents, eliminating adjuster roles and compressing P&C expense ratios. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Job displacement ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.