What if a rare-earth-magnet bottleneck stalls the humanoid-robot ramp?
An actuator / rare-earth-magnet bottleneck caps the humanoid ramp: Nvidia, TSMC and the semi complex sell as the deployment story stalls, and the disinflation thesis pauses. Closest analogue is the Oct-2024 ASML bookings-miss chip-equipment shock, which exposed how a single supply constraint repriced the complex. Transmission runs through China's ~90% grip on processed rare earths/NdFeB magnets. Forward angle: the real chokepoint is magnets and precision actuators, not GPUs — the cascade over-weights silicon; the cleaner short is the assemblers and the cleaner long is rare-earth supply ex-China.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An actuator / rare-earth-magnet bottleneck constrains the humanoid-robot ramp. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Robotics productivity ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.19–+0.38% |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.23–+-0.0% |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.59–-0.18% |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.12–+0.0% |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.54–+0.95% |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.99–+0.54% |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.47–-0.03% |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.43–+1.01% |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.68–-0.08% |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.75–+0.02% |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.28–+1.04% |
| 12 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.69–+1.3% |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–+1.03% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 73% | 40 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 71% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.0% | 67% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.8% | 62% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.5% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Rare-earth/actuator bottleneck likely given China magnet controls; near-term ramp constraint probable. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.