What if the Indian rupee gaps past 100 to the dollar?
USDINR through 100 on FII equity outflows and a widening CAD is risk-off dollar strength — short the rupee and Indian rate-sensitives, not a US-reserve-confidence event. The supplied cascade (Treasuries bid on reserve flight, gold and BTC down as reserve hedges fade) is backwards: an India BoP shock strengthens the dollar via safe-haven demand and does nothing to displace USD reserve status. Rhymes with the 2013 taper-tantrum rupee rout, when the RBI burned reserves and hiked to defend the currency. Forward: deeper RBI reserves than 2013 make 100 a slower grind than a gap.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Heavy FII equity outflows and a widening current-account gap drive USDINR through 100 for the first time despite RBI reserve sales. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.