What if a US yield surge sparks a taper-tantrum-style rupiah sell-off like 2013?
A renewed US-yield surge sparks a taper-tantrum-style rupiah sell-off reminiscent of 2013, pressuring Indonesia's external balance and forcing Bank Indonesia into defensive rate hikes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed US-yield surge sparks a taper-tantrum-style rupiah sell-off reminiscent of 2013, pressuring Indonesia's external balance and forcing Bank Indonesia into defensive rate hikes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.68–+0.03% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.96–+0.21% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 3 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.49–-0.29% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.61–-0.2% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.6–-0.2% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -10.57–+1.44% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.39–+1.56% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.29–+2.31% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–+0.13% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.63–-0.02% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +0.11–+6.57% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -0.26–+6.71% · other way +14.7% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.2–+0.04% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.5% · 5d -6.9% | 74% | 38 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.0% | 72% | 39 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.5% | 70% | 39 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.0% | 63% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -5.2% | 63% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.0% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |