What if a satellite-internet constellation fails all at once?
A LEO constellation bricking strands rural/maritime broadband and hits satellite operators and insurers — it is NOT a Taiwan-fab supply shock, so selling TSMC/ASML/Nvidia on 'semiconductor_risk' is the wrong channel. Closest analogue is the 2022 Viasat/KA-SAT cyber-outage, which was contained to comms names. Real read: launch/space-insurance repricing plus a modest risk-off wobble; the semi complex is a non-sequitur here.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cascading software fault de-orbits or bricks a large LEO broadband fleet, stranding rural and maritime connectivity. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.