What if Saudi-led OPEC+ taper rebuilds market share?
Saudi Arabia unwinds voluntary cuts gradually as demand firms, adding barrels without crashing price; a balanced market supports a soft-landing disinflation path.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Saudi Arabia unwinds voluntary cuts gradually as demand firms, adding barrels without crashing price; a balanced market supports a soft-landing disinflation path. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.78–-0.29% · other way -2.76% (n=5) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.05–+1.15% · other way -3.73% (n=5) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.93–+0.52% · other way -3.3% (n=5) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.63–+13.44% · other way +6.88% (n=5) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.6–-0.18% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.57–+5.32% · other way -5.62% (n=5) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.99–+0.03% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.64–+8.66% · other way +2.53% (n=5) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.02–+0.77% · other way -1.08% (n=6) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.93–+10.2% · other way +14.03% (n=5) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.2–+3.99% · other way -0.58% (n=5) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.38% · other way +0.33% (n=5) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.11–+1.57% · other way +16.37% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 20 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +1.9% | 81% | 15 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +25.1% · 5d +7.5% | 67% | 7 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -5.0% | 68% | 19 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +12.5% · 5d +0.7% | 63% | 16 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 20 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 20 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 17 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 17 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 17 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 20 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d -9.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 10 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |