What if Saudi mega-cut sends Brent back above $90?
A surprise deep OPEC+ production cut led by Saudi Arabia tightens balances and lifts Brent above $90, a stagflationary impulse for oil-importing economies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surprise deep OPEC+ production cut led by Saudi Arabia tightens balances and lifts Brent above $90, a stagflationary impulse for oil-importing economies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.67–+1.96% · other way -0.58% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.6% hist -0.57–+2.05% · other way +2.74% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.08–+2.3% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.69–+5.78% · other way +6.37% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.39–+2.76% · other way -2.54% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.2–+2.13% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.26–+2.51% · other way +5.86% (n=11) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.96–+3.56% · other way +20.69% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.8–-0.02% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.79–+1.63% · other way -1.2% (n=9) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.48–-0.16% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.53–-0.16% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -3.96–+20.79% · other way +8.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -3.25–+20.32% · other way +10.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.5% | 75% | 31 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 65% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -6.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 26 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |