What if Silver dumps as speculative longs capitulate on rate spike?
A jump in real yields flushes crowded speculative silver longs; the high-beta metal sells off harder than gold and the ratio widens past 90.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A jump in real yields flushes crowded speculative silver longs; the high-beta metal sells off harder than gold and the ratio widens past 90. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Silver ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–+0.08% · other way +3.4% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–-0.11% · other way +2.32% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.38–+0.3% · other way +16.26% (n=11) |
| 4 | Silver XAGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.68–-0.03% · other way +5.82% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.19–+1.4% · other way -9.89% (n=8) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.01–+2.78% · other way +16.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.69% · other way +0.87% (n=11) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -2.06–+3.06% · other way +18.3% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.27–+0.83% · other way +5.18% (n=8) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -10.25–+1.31% · other way +1.7% (n=8) |
| 12 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.24–+0.85% · other way +8.79% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.29% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 14 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.95–+1.3% · other way -7.19% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.9% | 75% | 28 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -1.8% | 74% | 33 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.5% | 72% | 28 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 34 | 0.27 | · |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.0% | 63% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| XAG XAG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -6.1% | 60% | 27 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 60% | 33 | 0.15 | · |