What if Simandou first ore launches a multi-year iron-ore glut?
Rio Tinto's giant Simandou project ramps high-grade Guinean iron ore into a slowing China; seaborne supply swells and benchmark iron ore drops below $80/t.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Rio Tinto's giant Simandou project ramps high-grade Guinean iron ore into a slowing China; seaborne supply swells and benchmark iron ore drops below $80/t. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -6.7–+1.66% · other way +8.06% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.78–+0.33% · other way +1.17% (n=11) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.34–+0.8% · other way -1.8% (n=8) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.9–+0.21% · other way -4.6% (n=8) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.62–+3.52% · other way -10.86% (n=8) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.7% · other way +15.54% (n=11) |
| 7 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.71–+0.18% · other way +0.26% (n=10) |
| 8 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.53–+0.05% · other way +5.18% (n=11) |
| 9 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.71–+0.55% · other way +4.6% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.71–+0.21% · other way +2.1% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 70% | 29 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 25 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -15.3% | 67% | 16 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 29 | 0.20 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -3.7% | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | · |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 24 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 29 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 29 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 29 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -6bp | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.6% | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |