What if EV truck adoption erodes diesel demand structurally?
Electrification of medium- and heavy-duty fleets, led by China, structurally erodes diesel consumption, the workhorse of the barrel; distillate cracks soften and refiners rebalance yields toward jet and petrochemicals.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Electrification of medium- and heavy-duty fleets, led by China, structurally erodes diesel consumption, the workhorse of the barrel; distillate cracks soften and refiners rebalance yields toward jet and petrochemicals. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Diesel ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.