What if global trade fragmentation durably reduces throughput at Singapore's port and refining complex?
Global trade fragmentation and friend-shoring durably reduce throughput at Singapore's port and refining complex, structurally lowering trade-linked credit demand and growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Global trade fragmentation and friend-shoring durably reduce throughput at Singapore's port and refining complex, structurally lowering trade-linked credit demand and growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.63–-0.55% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.32–+-0.0% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.17–+0.04% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.74–+1.55% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.79–-0.16% · other way +2.69% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.24–+1.44% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.55–-0.23% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.52–+1.28% · other way -1.4% (n=11) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.75–+1.72% · other way +2.33% (n=11) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.15–+0.82% · other way +1.6% (n=11) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.22–-0.28% · other way +3.24% (n=11) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.59–+0.66% · other way -4.19% (n=10) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.35–+0.44% · other way -1.86% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 27 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -2.0% | 77% | 21 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -0.7% | 73% | 18 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 73% | 18 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.4% | 68% | 18 | 0.33 | · |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 18 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 18 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 21 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.6% | 63% | 9 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d 0bp | 60% | 26 | 0.20 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 18 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 6 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +2.5% | 59% | 19 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |