What if a global semiconductor downturn hits Singapore's manufacturing and re-exports?
A global semiconductor and electronics downturn hits Singapore's manufacturing and re-exports, dragging GDP into contraction and lifting SME and trade-related loan delinquencies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global semiconductor and electronics downturn hits Singapore's manufacturing and re-exports, dragging GDP into contraction and lifting SME and trade-related loan delinquencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.38–-0.82% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.03–-0.57% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.39–-0.38% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.07–-0.34% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.66–+0.91% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -11.49–+2.02% · other way -17.76% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.11–+0.04% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.28–+0.65% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.09–+1.62% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.63–+0.29% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.7–-0.35% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.81–-0.43% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -10.88–+1.2% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -6.3% | 75% | 36 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 69% | 39 | 0.33 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.1% | 69% | 38 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -4.0% | 65% | 39 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.4% · 5d -6.7% | 70% | 34 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.8% | 67% | 39 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 34 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.5% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |