What if collapsing container rates hit Singapore's maritime-finance lenders and offshore-marine borrowers?
A collapse in container and bulk-shipping rates hits Singapore's maritime-finance lenders and offshore-marine borrowers, reviving the asset-quality stress of the mid-2010s oil-services bust.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A collapse in container and bulk-shipping rates hits Singapore's maritime-finance lenders and offshore-marine borrowers, reviving the asset-quality stress of the mid-2010s oil-services bust. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.47–-0.52% · other way +2.43% (n=10) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.96–+0.67% · other way +1.55% (n=10) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.93–-0.04% · other way +2.53% (n=10) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.68–+2.22% · other way +7.6% (n=10) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.38% · other way +2.62% (n=10) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.96–+0.99% · other way +19.86% (n=10) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.17–+1.42% · other way -6.07% (n=4) |
| 8 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.3–+0.97% · other way -5.48% (n=4) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.97–+0.61% · other way +6.12% (n=10) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.3–+2.59% · other way +1.74% (n=6) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.63–-0.1% · other way +4.21% (n=10) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.69–-0.03% · other way +9.02% (n=10) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.31–+0.5% · other way -0.74% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.1% | 71% | 34 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.1% | 68% | 34 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.9% | 70% | 11 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.4% | 65% | 15 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 26 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.6% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 34 | 0.18 | · |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 15 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -16bp · 5d -5bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |