What if Soft-landing easing: disinflation lets Fed cut cleanly?
Inflation glides to target while growth holds, letting the Fed cut without controversy; breakevens stay anchored, credit spreads tighten and equities re-rate.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Inflation glides to target while growth holds, letting the Fed cut without controversy; breakevens stay anchored, credit spreads tighten and equities re-rate. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Fed policy path ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -4.83–+11.64% · other way -5.59% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -3.88–+9.16% · other way +12.5% (n=5) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.3–+0.7% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.92–+3.41% · other way -5.64% (n=6) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.61–+2.19% · other way -7.84% (n=8) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.09–+0.04% · other way -4.73% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.07–+0.69% · other way +0.48% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.14–+2.27% · other way -4.26% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.11–+8.8% · other way +10.38% (n=4) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.2–+0.29% · other way +0.37% (n=10) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.0–+0.41% · other way +0.68% (n=11) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.44–+2.21% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.33–+1.06% · other way -1.03% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.6% | 76% | 40 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +2bp | 69% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +1bp | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.8% | 59% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 54% | 36 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |