What if Solid-state and superconductor R&D threatens copper demand growth?
Advances in high-temperature superconductors and alternative conductors for grids and chips raise the long-run risk of copper demand erosion, capping the bull case.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Advances in high-temperature superconductors and alternative conductors for grids and chips raise the long-run risk of copper demand erosion, capping the bull case. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.12–+0.64% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.15–+0.17% · other way -3.48% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.75–+15.79% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.11–+0.2% · other way +0.96% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.86–+1.66% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.25–+0.77% · other way -3.55% (n=6) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.97–+5.0% · other way +1.16% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -7.1% | 66% | 35 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 38 | 0.22 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.1% | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +4bp | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 54% | 39 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 52% | 35 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 52% | 38 | 0.03 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | · |