What if capital flight triggers a sudden stop and rand sell-off in South Africa?
SARB stress: rapid capital outflows trigger a sudden stop in portfolio funding, forcing a sharp rand sell-off, a spike in long-bond yields and tighter financial conditions for SA banks.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. SARB stress: rapid capital outflows trigger a sudden stop in portfolio funding, forcing a sharp rand sell-off, a spike in long-bond yields and tighter financial conditions for SA banks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.