What if a lethal wet-bulb heat event strikes northern India?
A lethal wet-bulb event in northern India halts outdoor labor and spikes power demand for cooling — the tradable legs are Indian power/coal stress and a wheat/rice supply scare, not a global food-CPI move. Rhymes with the 2022 pre-monsoon heatwave that cut Indian wheat yields and triggered an export ban. Transmission runs through India's wheat-export stance (it supplies regional importers) and grid strain; the modeled EM-FX leg is second-order.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A wet-bulb heat event crosses human survivability limits across northern India, killing thousands and halting outdoor labor. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.