What if space-based solar power finally becomes viable?
Space-based solar viability is a long-run energy-disinflation story: it pressures Brent/WTI and distillates on a softer terminal oil-supply premium, dragging energy majors and trimming breakevens. No direct analogue; the cleanest mental rhyme is the way the 2014-16 shale/solar cost-curve shift permanently capped the long-end oil strip. Skeptic: launch-cost and transmission engineering keep this decades out, so any crude selloff on the headline is a fade - the durable trade is the terminal-value derating of fossil-energy long-duration assets, not spot.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Space-based solar power reaches viability, repricing the long-run energy outlook. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.