What if stablecoin issuers drain sponsored-repo placements and spike overnight funding rates?
Issuers unwinding sponsored-repo placements to fund redemptions pull cash from a tight repo market, spiking overnight rates in the funding plumbing the OFR flags for crypto-TradFi linkages.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Issuers unwinding sponsored-repo placements to fund redemptions pull cash from a tight repo market, spiking overnight rates in the funding plumbing the OFR flags for crypto-TradFi linkages. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.4% hist -4.78–-0.4% · other way -7.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.6% hist -16.57–+6.96% · other way -6.7% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.9% hist -13.78–+5.08% · other way -18.56% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.4% hist -16.77–+4.92% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.55–-0.17% · other way +2.5% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–-0.01% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.49–+0.46% · other way +1.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -18.48–+3.93% · other way -2.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.14–+0.19% · other way -0.89% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.76–+0.19% · other way +1.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -18.6–+6.44% · other way -5.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.35–+-0.0% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.4–+3.06% · other way -2.32% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -8.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -15.8% | 78% | 9 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -16bp · 5d -8bp | 71% | 31 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -11.7% | 70% | 10 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 31 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -4.9% | 66% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -18bp · 5d -9bp | 64% | 31 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 27 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 31 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 28 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 51% | 28 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 44% | 9 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.9% | 42% | 30 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |