What if Stagflation barbell regime: only energy and gold beat cash?
A grinding stagflation leaves most assets trailing cash while energy equities and gold provide the only real returns, rewarding a commodity-gold barbell.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A grinding stagflation leaves most assets trailing cash while energy equities and gold provide the only real returns, rewarding a commodity-gold barbell. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -1.27–+1.23% · other way -3.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.4% hist -4.83–+1.3% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.01–+0.67% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.28–+1.42% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.67–-0.17% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.21–+3.17% · other way +30.65% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.48–+1.18% · other way +4.74% (n=12) |
| 9 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.95–+6.58% · other way +8.76% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.09–+0.85% · other way -1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.15–+1.2% · other way -3.16% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.24–+0.43% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.53–+1.5% · other way +8.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–+0.15% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.9% · 5d +3.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -2.7% | 71% | 32 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 33 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 29 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 29 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 15 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +8.5% | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -7.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.5% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 30 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 58% | 30 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |