What if Stagflation EM contagion: importers squeezed by oil and a strong dollar?
An energy-led inflation shock and strong dollar squeeze oil-importing emerging markets, forcing pro-cyclical hikes that deepen a stagflationary EM downturn.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An energy-led inflation shock and strong dollar squeeze oil-importing emerging markets, forcing pro-cyclical hikes that deepen a stagflationary EM downturn. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -2.33–+1.19% · other way -4.58% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -3.01–+1.43% · other way -4.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.86–+0.95% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.51–+1.25% · other way +32.01% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.58–-0.34% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 6 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.29–+0.06% · other way -0.83% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.75–+0.34% · other way -2.33% (n=11) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.76–+2.51% · other way +11.69% (n=12) |
| 9 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.16–+0.58% · other way -2.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.51–+1.47% · other way +8.96% (n=11) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.03–+0.69% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.63–+0.14% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–-0.12% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.5% · 5d +4.6% | 74% | 18 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.8% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 69% | 36 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.5% | 68% | 35 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 18 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.5% | 61% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.4% | 62% | 28 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.5% | 63% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -7.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |