What if Stagflationary supply shock 2.0: a new chokepoint reprises 1973?
A fresh commodity or shipping chokepoint reprises a 1973-style supply shock, simultaneously raising prices and cutting output in a classic stagflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fresh commodity or shipping chokepoint reprises a 1973-style supply shock, simultaneously raising prices and cutting output in a classic stagflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -0.91–+1.81% · other way -3.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -4.46–+1.52% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.55–+2.6% · other way +30.65% (n=12) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.74–+0.89% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.91–-0.31% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.5–+1.23% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.76–-0.05% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.8–+1.33% · other way +8.33% (n=12) |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.13–+6.27% · other way +8.76% (n=12) |
| 11 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.25–+1.12% · other way -1.61% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.63–+1.09% · other way +4.74% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.38–+0.68% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 14 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.73–+4.1% · other way +4.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.7% · 5d +0.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.9% · 5d +3.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -2.7% | 71% | 32 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -0.8% | 71% | 35 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 33 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 30 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 29 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.0% | 65% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 29 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 15 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -5.4% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |