What if stranded fossil assets trigger a structural energy credit crisis?
Climate transition and weak prices strand high-cost fossil assets, downgrading and defaulting carbon-heavy energy issuers in a structural rather than cyclical credit crisis.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Climate transition and weak prices strand high-cost fossil assets, downgrading and defaulting carbon-heavy energy issuers in a structural rather than cyclical credit crisis. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.8% hist -5.34–+0.29% · other way -3.48% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.5% hist -3.75–+0.44% · other way -2.88% (n=11) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.35–+0.29% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.54–-0.29% · other way +9.18% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.43–+1.61% · other way +1.03% (n=6) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.42–-0.19% · other way -0.28% (n=11) |
| 7 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.3–+0.63% · other way +32.78% (n=11) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.9–+0.4% · other way -0.72% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.33–+3.38% · other way -8.67% (n=11) |
| 10 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.98–+0.02% · other way -1.96% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.65–+2.37% · other way +21.04% (n=11) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.56–+0.19% · other way +2.34% (n=6) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.59–+1.2% · other way -1.0% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.0% | 74% | 37 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 67% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.1% | 66% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -10.0% | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -3.5% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.8% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |