What if the loss of cheap Russian gas locks Europe into a structurally higher energy cost regime?
Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas leaves Europe dependent on marginal LNG pricing, embedding a structurally higher gas-cost regime that permanently raises industrial energy bills.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas leaves Europe dependent on marginal LNG pricing, embedding a structurally higher gas-cost regime that permanently raises industrial energy bills. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -12.31–+5.36% · other way +8.78% (n=12) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.72–+0.28% · other way +6.98% (n=12) |
| 3 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.75–+0.57% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 4 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.46–+0.32% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -5.66–+17.02% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -2.08–+1.19% · other way +2.54% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.58–+9.36% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -12.0% · 5d -5.6% | 71% | 14 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 13 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 67% | 12 | 0.23 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.3% | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 25 | 0.15 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +9bp | 57% | 23 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 14 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +7bp | 51% | 25 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 43% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +2.2% | 50% | 6 | 0.00 | · |