What if Tariff-passthrough deflation offset: strong dollar caps import prices?
A surging dollar offsets tariff cost-push by cheapening other imports, muting the inflation impulse and giving the Fed room to ease despite trade frictions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A surging dollar offsets tariff cost-push by cheapening other imports, muting the inflation impulse and giving the Fed room to ease despite trade frictions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -6.82–+12.39% · other way -1.63% (n=6) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.81–-0.38% · other way -3.15% (n=6) |
| 3 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.21–+0.54% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.82–+5.33% · other way +2.08% (n=5) |
| 5 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.53–+0.03% · other way -1.31% (n=6) |
| 6 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.6–-0.15% · other way -1.87% (n=6) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.25–+9.47% · other way +11.59% (n=3) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.55–-0.22% · other way -8.13% (n=6) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -4.41–+3.66% · other way +12.7% (n=11) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–-0.13% · other way -0.98% (n=6) |
| 11 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.07–+0.54% · other way +0.32% (n=6) |
| 12 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–-0.02% · other way +0.02% (n=6) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -3.88–+7.28% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–-0.14% · other way -1.68% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.6% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |