What if TikTok forced-sale shock reshuffles social-ad budgets?
A US divest-or-ban resolution disrupts TikTok ad inventory, creating near-term volatility but redirecting reels and shorts budgets to Meta and Google in a messy reshuffle.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US divest-or-ban resolution disrupts TikTok ad inventory, creating near-term volatility but redirecting reels and shorts budgets to Meta and Google in a messy reshuffle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.66–-0.39% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.51–-0.28% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–-0.1% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.81–+0.52% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.21–+0.15% · other way +3.35% (n=12) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–+0.25% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.71–+0.65% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.01–+2.72% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.41–+0.83% · other way +5.45% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.37–+0.01% · other way +1.84% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.39–+0.86% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.5–+2.23% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.66–+0.02% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.12–+1.44% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.4% | 73% | 39 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -6.5% | 73% | 31 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 39 | 0.33 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 37 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.4% · 5d -8.2% | 66% | 26 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.0% | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 26 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d +3.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |