What if Trade truce revives global capex cycle?
A durable easing of trade tensions unlocks delayed corporate investment worldwide, lifting industrial demand, global growth and cyclical equities.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A durable easing of trade tensions unlocks delayed corporate investment worldwide, lifting industrial demand, global growth and cyclical equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.48–+1.17% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.04–+2.45% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.6–+3.64% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.22–+2.49% · other way -2.9% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.37–+0.77% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -4.63–+13.1% · other way -1.92% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.61–+0.82% · other way +2.39% (n=9) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.06–+1.11% · other way -2.02% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.23–+2.14% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.18–+1.14% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.09–+1.83% · other way +0.77% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.29–+0.92% · other way -2.32% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.16–+0.99% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 71% | 38 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 38 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 38 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.0% | 63% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.8% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -6.1% | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.5% | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |