What if a contamination disaster idles TSMC's Arizona fab for months?
A months-long contamination shutdown of TSMC's flagship US fab is a hard advanced-chip supply choke — the deepest semi shock in this set, hitting NVDA and TSMC ~2%+ as customer allocations are cut. Rhymes with past fab contamination events (TSMC's 2019 photoresist incident, Renesas' 2021 fire) that idled output and rippled through customers. Forward angle: Arizona is still a small share of TSMC volume, so Taiwan capacity cushions the blow — the bigger signal is reshoring-resilience doubt than an aggregate supply cliff.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A contamination event idles TSMC's flagship US fab for months, choking advanced-chip supply for top customers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.