What if Turkey hikes again pre-emptively to defend the disinflation?
The CBRT surprises with an off-cycle hike to protect the lira and anchor expectations, a hawkish credibility signal that firms TRY and tightens local yields without breaking the regime.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The CBRT surprises with an off-cycle hike to protect the lira and anchor expectations, a hawkish credibility signal that firms TRY and tightens local yields without breaking the regime. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.56–+1.82% · other way +0.76% (n=10) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.06–+0.34% · other way -0.2% (n=10) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.65–+0.07% · other way +0.24% (n=10) |
| 4 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.35–+1.14% · other way +0.2% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 81% | 25 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 24 | 0.24 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 25 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.8% | 62% | 20 | 0.19 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.0% | 56% | 26 | 0.10 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 30 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.8% | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.6% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 52% | 25 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +1bp | 49% | 36 | 0.00 | · |