What if twin supertyphoons flood Taiwan's and Japan's chip fabs?
The actionable chain is semis: typhoon flooding of Taiwan/Japan fabs and ports is a precision supply shock to TSMC and the fabless chain (Nvidia, AMD), plus auto MCUs out of Japan. Rhymes with the 2021 Renesas Naka fab fire/Thai floods that throttled auto-chip supply for quarters. The grain leg is incidental; the real transmission is downstream electronics/auto OEMs globally that single-source advanced nodes from Taiwan.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Back-to-back supertyphoons flood Taiwan and Japan fabs and ports, snarling global electronics and auto supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.