What if twin supertyphoons flood Taiwan's and Japan's chip fabs?
The actionable chain is semis: typhoon flooding of Taiwan/Japan fabs and ports is a precision supply shock to TSMC and the fabless chain (Nvidia, AMD), plus auto MCUs out of Japan. Rhymes with the 2021 Renesas Naka fab fire/Thai floods that throttled auto-chip supply for quarters. The grain leg is incidental; the real transmission is downstream electronics/auto OEMs globally that single-source advanced nodes from Taiwan.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Back-to-back supertyphoons flood Taiwan and Japan fabs and ports, snarling global electronics and auto supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.17–-0.59% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.19–-0.29% · other way +3.99% (n=12) |
| 3 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.42–+0.85% · other way -3.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.56–-0.24% · other way +0.76% (n=12) |
| 5 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.43–+0.3% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.57–-0.12% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.82–-0.03% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.21–+0.66% · other way -5.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.67–+0.39% · other way +1.6% (n=12) |
| 10 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.51–+0.66% · other way +2.29% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.47–+1.21% · other way -3.46% (n=12) |
| 12 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.54–+1.02% · other way -1.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -2.13–+4.41% · other way -8.03% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade longs on WHEAT and NG: the negative history is gold-squeeze and DeepSeek windows off the grain/gas channel, while typhoon fab-and-port floods drive genuine supply disruption the analogues never captured.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 39 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.3% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.7% | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.1% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.9% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.4% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.3% | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Back-to-back supertyphoons hitting both Taiwan AND Japan fabs in 6mo is plausible but specific. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.