What if JKM spikes as Asian utilities outbid Europe for winter LNG?
A cold North-Asian winter sends Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM) sharply above TTF as utilities in Japan, Korea and China outbid Europe for spot cargoes, re-routing Atlantic LNG eastward.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold North-Asian winter sends Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM) sharply above TTF as utilities in Japan, Korea and China outbid Europe for spot cargoes, re-routing Atlantic LNG eastward. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.