What if a UK defense-spending surge toward 3% of GDP lifts the gilt term premium?
A UK defense-spending surge toward 3% of GDP without offsetting consolidation widens the deficit and lifts the gilt term premium.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A UK defense-spending surge toward 3% of GDP without offsetting consolidation widens the deficit and lifts the gilt term premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.05–+0.58% · other way +25.41% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.67–+0.27% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 3 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.01–+1.25% · other way -2.86% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.66–+0.02% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.11–+1.32% · other way -2.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.66–+1.69% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
| 7 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.27–+0.74% · other way -3.05% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.38–+1.97% · other way +6.5% (n=11) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +1.45–+3.96% · other way +7.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.72–+2.21% · other way +6.3% (n=11) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.08–+5.56% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.9–+0.05% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.77–+0.1% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.5% · 5d +9.2% | 85% | 12 | 0.55 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.2% · 5d +0.9% | 69% | 12 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.9% | 72% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 37 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 66% | 31 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -3.5% | 68% | 18 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -7.4% | 65% | 12 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +2.7% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.7% | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |