What if Ukraine reconstruction and reform anchor recovery boom (good)?
Durable security arrangements and EU-anchored reform launch a large Ukraine reconstruction program; regional construction demand and lower geopolitical risk support European and EM risk appetite.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Durable security arrangements and EU-anchored reform launch a large Ukraine reconstruction program; regional construction demand and lower geopolitical risk support European and EM risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.