What if US fiscal populism steepens the curve, 30Y tops 5%?
Bipartisan reluctance to consolidate plus new untargeted spending pushes the US deficit wider; the curve bear-steepens, the 30-year yield tops 5%, and gold rallies on fiscal-debasement concern.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bipartisan reluctance to consolidate plus new untargeted spending pushes the US deficit wider; the curve bear-steepens, the 30-year yield tops 5%, and gold rallies on fiscal-debasement concern. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.