What if US grand fiscal bargain restores the debt anchor (good)?
A bipartisan grand bargain credibly stabilizes the US debt path via phased spending caps and revenue; the term premium falls, the curve bull-flattens, and risk appetite improves as fiscal tail risk recedes.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A bipartisan grand bargain credibly stabilizes the US debt path via phased spending caps and revenue; the term premium falls, the curve bull-flattens, and risk appetite improves as fiscal tail risk recedes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Yield-curve slope ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.