What if US reciprocal tariffs hit India's pharma and IT exports?
Washington imposes reciprocal tariffs and visa curbs targeting Indian goods and services, denting export earnings and the trade balance; IT-heavy NIFTY names fall and the rupee weakens.
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The butterfly cascade
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Washington imposes reciprocal tariffs and visa curbs targeting Indian goods and services, denting export earnings and the trade balance; IT-heavy NIFTY names fall and the rupee weakens. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.