What if US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods?
Washington enforces a 40% levy on goods deemed to carry excess Chinese transshipment content, hammering Vietnam's electronics and furniture export margins; the dong weakens, credit spreads widen and regional risk appetite sours.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Washington enforces a 40% levy on goods deemed to carry excess Chinese transshipment content, hammering Vietnam's electronics and furniture export margins; the dong weakens, credit spreads widen and regional risk appetite sours. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.09–-0.73% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.33–+0.63% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.18–+2.25% · other way +3.35% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.27–-0.37% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.21–-0.34% · other way +3.69% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.56–+0.92% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.25–+2.29% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.46–+1.06% · other way +5.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.82–-0.09% · other way +2.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.8–+0.29% · other way +27.47% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.22–-0.28% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.33–+0.65% · other way -3.18% (n=11) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.41–+0.27% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -7.72–+3.05% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.9% | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.0% | 67% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -5.9% | 71% | 18 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 34 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.5% | 64% | 20 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +-0.0% | 60% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.4% | 58% | 36 | 0.16 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +2.8% | 59% | 17 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -12.4% | 59% | 17 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |