What if Wage-growth moderation supports a soft-landing margin recovery?
Cooling wage growth as labor supply improves eases unit-labor-cost pressure, supporting margin recovery without a demand collapse; the benign labor-cost path underpins a soft-landing earnings rebound and risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Cooling wage growth as labor supply improves eases unit-labor-cost pressure, supporting margin recovery without a demand collapse; the benign labor-cost path underpins a soft-landing earnings rebound and risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.32–+1.73% · other way -4.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -5.75–+15.5% · other way +7.69% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.91–+2.54% · other way -4.93% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.53–+0.5% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.06–+2.94% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.65–+0.07% · other way +5.51% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.8–+0.31% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.23–+0.31% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.19–+0.67% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.39–+8.98% · other way +3.74% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -4.67–+11.63% · other way +6.6% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.14–+0.52% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.07–+0.1% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 65% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +5bp | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.3% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -8.1% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.6% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.4% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |