What if state hackers poison a major city's water supply?
Hacking a city's water-treatment controls crosses a red line but is contained in scale — a modest risk-off wobble (VIX +9), not a systemic event. Direct analogue: the 2021 Oldsmar, Florida water-plant intrusion, which made headlines but moved no market. The actionable read is that this is a sentiment/headline shock with no real-economy hit unless it generalizes; skeptically, single-facility OT attacks have a near-zero track record of sustained market impact.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. State hackers manipulate a major city's water-treatment controls, crossing a strategic red line. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.