What if AI agents collapse white-collar office employment?
White-collar AI-agent displacement is bullish the enabling stack (Nvidia, Broadcom custom silicon, Micron HBM) but a demand drag: consumer spend and credit deteriorate as office employment falls. No clean analogue; the capex leg rhymes with the 2023 AI rerating, the demand leg is the novel risk. Forward angle: this hits services-CPI and shifts the labor-share-of-income lower, a disinflationary-but-deflationary-demand mix that argues for long duration and bifurcated equities — semis up, consumer-cyclicals down.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. AI agents replace large swaths of white-collar knowledge work, collapsing office employment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · AI capex ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.