What if Wildfire shut-ins cut 0.5 mb/d of Canadian oil-sands output?
Boreal wildfires force precautionary shut-ins across Alberta oil-sands operations, removing about 0.5 mb/d of heavy crude; WCS discounts narrow and US Midwest refiners scramble for feedstock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Boreal wildfires force precautionary shut-ins across Alberta oil-sands operations, removing about 0.5 mb/d of heavy crude; WCS discounts narrow and US Midwest refiners scramble for feedstock. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.3% hist +0.13–+2.29% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.8% hist -1.38–+2.06% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.43–+1.77% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.38–+6.49% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.17–+2.32% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.05–+1.57% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.21–+3.28% · other way +5.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.63–+6.3% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.55–-0.1% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -3.66–+20.69% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–-0.08% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.35–-0.16% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -3.15–+21.98% · other way +6.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.56–+1.24% · other way -1.62% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.4% | 74% | 30 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +17bp · 5d +9bp | 66% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 30 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.6% · 5d +0.2% | 69% | 25 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 30 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 25 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +2.0% | 64% | 31 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 30 | 0.24 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -6.6% ↺ fades | 65% | 25 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -6.4% | 64% | 11 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 30 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 30 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |