What if the yuan breaks 7.5 per dollar and triggers a capital-outflow spiral?
CNY weakens past 7.5/USD as the growth slump and rate differential overwhelm PBoC fixing defense, triggering a self-reinforcing capital-outflow and depreciation-expectation spiral across the region.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. CNY weakens past 7.5/USD as the growth slump and rate differential overwhelm PBoC fixing defense, triggering a self-reinforcing capital-outflow and depreciation-expectation spiral across the region. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.8–-0.34% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.61–-0.26% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.58–-0.16% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.9–+0.06% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -16.8–+1.47% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 6 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.44–-0.1% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.63–+1.19% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.47–-0.03% · other way +2.36% (n=12) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.31% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -11.42–+1.64% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.31–-0.08% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 13 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.84–+0.4% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.23–+0.28% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.2% · 5d -14.9% | 79% | 29 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -8.8% | 74% | 31 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 34 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.8% | 61% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.6% | 62% | 34 | 0.19 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -4.3% | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.0% | 59% | 36 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.1% | 57% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |