What if the PBOC lets the yuan break past 7.60?
PBOC abandoning the fix and letting USDCNY break 7.60 triggers Asia-wide competitive-devaluation fear: semis and China megacaps (Alibaba, TSMC, Nvidia via supply chain) lead lower, copper softens, the yuan and EM-Asia FX slide together. This is the Aug-2015 surprise devaluation and Aug-2019 'break 7 / manipulator' playbook, both of which sparked global risk-off. Forward angle: a deliberate float now reads as a trade-war weapon amid tariffs, so the reaction is more about retaliation risk than the FX level itself.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. PBOC abandons the daily fix defense and lets USDCNY blow past 7.60, triggering Asia-wide competitive devaluation fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.04–-0.24% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.58–-0.35% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 3 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.37–+0.14% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.56–+0.19% · other way +4.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.92–-0.4% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.89–-0.26% · other way +3.61% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -14.8–+7.35% · other way -2.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.86–+0.99% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.87–-0.01% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.0–+1.27% · other way +3.77% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.0–+0.71% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.0–-0.14% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.62–+0.06% · other way +23.21% (n=12) |
| 14 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -4.36–+1.22% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR/AVGO: realized longs are the 2024-25 tariff-war/rare-earth bull windows where crypto and AI-chips ripped; a disorderly yuan break past 7.60 is Asia-devaluation risk-off those regime-biased samples invert.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.2% | 73% | 23 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -9.5% | 70% | 19 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 25 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.1% | 64% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.2% · 5d -19.8% | 67% | 13 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 25 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.7% | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 23 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 23 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
PBOC defends fix aggressively; 7.60 break possible under tariff pressure but actively resisted. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.