The receipt · a call frozen on the record

Wall Street has given up on 2026 Fed rate cuts

⏳ OPEN — resolves 2026-07-05. The rule below was fixed before the outcome; this page is the receipt.

The claim: The Fed makes no move this week and the higher-for-longer regime holds — markets keep pricing ~zero cuts in 2026, with the surprise risk a HIKE, not a cut.
Published: week of 2026-06-29 · resolves: 2026-07-05
Crowd at publish: 77% — a disagreement, not a proven edge; edge is what Reality Check measures once calls resolve.

The resolution rule — fixed before the outcome

TRUE if the Fed makes no rate change Jun 29–Jul 5 (none scheduled; next FOMC Jul 29) AND the modal Polymarket 'Fed rate cuts in 2026' market stays at 0 cuts through Jul 5.

⛓ frozen in the prediction chain — event #2 · hash 6ab27222c18e · the chain is public and verifiable; editing this call after the fact would snap it.

Context

The full scenario & cascade → · This week's calls · The public scorecard · a 90% call fails 1 times in 10 — that's the deal.