Yemen — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Yemen and its globally‑connected markets.
47 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
55%1–3 years
What if Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind?
55%1–3 years
What if Suez traffic recovery rebuilds Egypt's reserves?
53%1–3 years
What if AU secures funding to hold Mogadishu?
47%1–3 years
What if Sudan reconstruction reopens Red Sea gold trade?
42%1–3 years
What if Suez Canal revenue recovery rebuilds Egypt's FX buffer?
34%6–18 months
What if Red Sea reopening normalizes freight and collapses diesel cracks?
33%1–3 years
What if Saudi giga-projects deliver, foreign capital re-rates Tadawul?
31%1–3 years
What if Sudan hardens into two rival states?
30%Imminent
What if the Red Sea needs naval convoys to move trade?
25%0–6 months
What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks structurally elevated?
24%1–3 years
What if Quad-brokered Sudan ceasefire holds?
21%6–18 months
What if Red Sea reopens to Suez, freight collapses?
21%1–3 years
What if Red Sea convoy regime restores tanker flows?
21%0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks choke Bab-el-Mandeb shipping?
20%0–6 months
What if Houthi missiles seal the Bab el-Mandeb strait?
19%0–6 months
What if container freight rates spike fivefold?
18%0–6 months
What if sustained attacks force container lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope?
18%0–6 months
What if Houthi surge re-shuts the Red Sea?
18%1–3 years
What if Yemen peace deal ends the Houthi shipping threat?
17%0–6 months
What if the Houthis sink a tanker and close the Suez route?
17%0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
16%6–18 months
What if Geopolitical oil-corridor scare spikes India's import-cost tail?
15%0–6 months
What if Suez revenue collapse drains Egypt's reserves?
15%0–6 months
What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks elevated?
15%6–18 months
What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?
15%6–18 months
What if Egypt's pound slides as Red Sea toll revenue craters?
14%0–6 months
What if the Houthis close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait entirely?
14%0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
14%1–3 years
What if Suez and tourism revival rebuild Egypt's reserves?
14%6–18 months
What if Houthi ceasefire collapses Red Sea war-risk rates?
14%6–18 months
What if Ethiopia seizes Assab, war with Eritrea erupts?
14%6–18 months
What if RSF push to Port Sudan threatens Red Sea coast?
14%6–18 months
What if Eritrea aligns with Egypt-Somalia axis versus Ethiopia?
12%0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks reroute tankers around the Cape and tighten crude supply?
12%0–6 months
What if Yemen war reignites, Houthis hit Saudi oil again?
12%0–6 months
What if Houthi anti-ship missiles extend to the Arabian Sea?
12%0–6 months
What if Houthi Red Sea attacks reroute products, widen East-West cracks?
11%0–6 months
What if Houthis sink a laden crude tanker?
11%6–18 months
What if Bab-el-Mandeb mining closes the strait?
11%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente collapses back into rivalry?
10%0–6 months
What if sustained Houthi strikes on Gulf energy assets embed a persistent supply-risk premium?
10%6–18 months
What if coordinated sabotage of subsea cables disrupts connectivity and cross-border finance?
9%0–6 months
What if the Houthis sink a US destroyer in the Red Sea?
9%0–6 months
What if tanker attacks in the Gulf send war-risk insurance premia surging and idle shipping capacity?
7%0–6 months
What if sustained Red Sea tanker attacks lengthen European crude supply lines and lift diesel cracks?
7%0–6 months
What if Red Sea rerouting ties up the clean-product tanker fleet and tightens regional fuel supply?
6%0–6 months
What if Hormuz and the Red Sea are disrupted simultaneously and overwhelm rerouting capacity?