Yemen — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Yemen and its globally‑connected markets.
47 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
55%1–3 years
What if Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind?
55%1–3 years
What if Suez traffic recovery rebuilds Egypt's reserves?
53%1–3 years
What if AU secures funding to hold Mogadishu?
47%1–3 years
What if Sudan reconstruction reopens Red Sea gold trade?
42%1–3 years
What if Suez Canal revenue recovery rebuilds Egypt's FX buffer?
34%6–18 months
What if Red Sea reopening normalizes freight and collapses diesel cracks?
33%1–3 years
What if Saudi giga-projects deliver, foreign capital re-rates Tadawul?
31%1–3 years
What if Sudan hardens into two rival states?
30%Imminent
What if the Red Sea needs naval convoys to move trade?
25%1–3 years
What if Quad-brokered Sudan ceasefire holds?
25%0–6 months
What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks structurally elevated?
21%0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks choke Bab-el-Mandeb shipping?
21%1–3 years
What if Red Sea convoy regime restores tanker flows?
21%6–18 months
What if Red Sea reopens to Suez, freight collapses?
20%0–6 months
What if Houthi missiles seal the Bab el-Mandeb strait?
19%0–6 months
What if container freight rates spike fivefold?
18%0–6 months
What if Houthi surge re-shuts the Red Sea?
18%6–18 months
What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?
18%0–6 months
What if sustained attacks force container lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope?
18%1–3 years
What if Yemen peace deal ends the Houthi shipping threat?
17%0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
17%0–6 months
What if the Houthis sink a tanker and close the Suez route?
16%6–18 months
What if Egypt's pound slides as Red Sea toll revenue craters?
16%6–18 months
What if Geopolitical oil-corridor scare spikes India's import-cost tail?
15%0–6 months
What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks elevated?
15%0–6 months
What if Suez revenue collapse drains Egypt's reserves?
14%0–6 months
What if the Houthis close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait entirely?
14%6–18 months
What if Eritrea aligns with Egypt-Somalia axis versus Ethiopia?
14%6–18 months
What if Ethiopia seizes Assab, war with Eritrea erupts?
14%6–18 months
What if Houthi ceasefire collapses Red Sea war-risk rates?
14%0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
14%6–18 months
What if RSF push to Port Sudan threatens Red Sea coast?
14%1–3 years
What if Suez and tourism revival rebuild Egypt's reserves?
12%0–6 months
What if Houthi anti-ship missiles extend to the Arabian Sea?
12%0–6 months
What if Houthi Red Sea attacks reroute products, widen East-West cracks?
12%0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks reroute tankers around the Cape and tighten crude supply?
12%0–6 months
What if Yemen war reignites, Houthis hit Saudi oil again?
11%6–18 months
What if Bab-el-Mandeb mining closes the strait?
11%0–6 months
What if Houthis sink a laden crude tanker?
11%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente collapses back into rivalry?
10%0–6 months
What if sustained Houthi strikes on Gulf energy assets embed a persistent supply-risk premium?
10%6–18 months
What if coordinated sabotage of subsea cables disrupts connectivity and cross-border finance?
9%0–6 months
What if the Houthis sink a US destroyer in the Red Sea?
9%0–6 months
What if tanker attacks in the Gulf send war-risk insurance premia surging and idle shipping capacity?
8%0–6 months
What if Red Sea rerouting ties up the clean-product tanker fleet and tightens regional fuel supply?
8%0–6 months
What if sustained Red Sea tanker attacks lengthen European crude supply lines and lift diesel cracks?
6%0–6 months
What if Hormuz and the Red Sea are disrupted simultaneously and overwhelm rerouting capacity?