What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks elevated?
Persistent Houthi risk keeps tankers on the long Cape route, sustaining elevated diesel and jet-fuel cracks and a structural goods-freight premium into the year.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Persistent Houthi risk keeps tankers on the long Cape route, sustaining elevated diesel and jet-fuel cracks and a structural goods-freight premium into the year. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist +0.48–+5.63% · other way -6.59% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.17–-0.48% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.95–-0.15% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.29–-0.09% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.63–-0.09% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.47–+2.98% · other way +30.67% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.61–+9.03% · other way -0.88% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.99–+0.6% · other way +6.43% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.91–-0.01% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.77–+0.84% · other way +8.97% (n=11) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.8–+0.01% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.1–+0.33% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.91–+0.31% · other way -1.62% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.4% | 68% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.5% · 5d +1.6% | 66% | 18 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.9% | 65% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.2% | 66% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +4.0% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.8% | 62% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 35 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.7% · 5d -5.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |